It's impossible to say.
Germany, France, USA all working on TV, all had Electronic TV before the WWII. The USA stopped production of TVs sometime after 1941, but never shut down the service.
Certainly Baird created a lot of publicity. EMI (with RCA support) were probably doing it anyway and the limiting factor was only a working reliable camera tube. Would UK have been spurred on by German Berlin Games TV demos?
Would Berliner have developed the Gramophone if Edison hadn't done his half baked (well moulded, the mass produced cylinders suffered from the half & half mould) cylinder?
Would there have been so much pressure to figure how to create Tungsten filaments if Edison hadn't promoted his carbon filament lamp (a bamboo fibre proved to be best source, Edison certainly didn't invent electric lights but popularised them). Edison inadvertently created Hollywood by enforcing his bogus film /cinema patents by force (he didn't invent cinema, but helped popularise it in USA). The US Government later invalidated most of his cinema patents and told him to stop.
Perhaps one of Edison's genuine innovations was his talking doll. (ceased production 1890). I don't know why it was a failure though. Edison admired Marconi greatly but frankly told him it was because he hadn't had time to work on Radio and be in competition! He seems to have really disliked Tesla, who was as advanced or more so in radio as Marconi, but other than a pre 1900 radio controlled boat seems to have taken it no further? Too busy fighting with Edison about AC vs DC power (ironically now DC transmission is more economical!) and working on his fairly insane "Wireless power distribution".
We can't ever know what "might have been". Baird was certainly a character that captured imagination of the public, ever a showman (there was a BBC article about his WWI era women in sandwich boards advertising his product). Baird was a classic tinkerer that obsessively had successive ideas and wasn't a scientist, or really even a proper engineer, (Though I could be wrong). His nearly real time Film Camera/Telecine was his true masterpiece, if Zworykin hadn't solved the problems of the camera, 405 and 525 TV would have been using Baird's Film system cameras and not Farnsworth's Image dissector. We though then might have had some better than 405 and 525 "saved" film from early days of TV!
What were the Germans using in Berlin 1936 for TV? Did Telefunken have a version of the EMI/RCA camera, licensed or copied? Or something else?